Type of publication: Report
Author: Ambassador Abdel-Fatau Musah (PhD), Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security at the ECOWAS Commission.
Site of the organisation: African Peacebuilding Network (APN)
Date of the publication: November 2024
In recent years, West Africa has gone through major political and security upheavals. With a wave of military coups, the rise of new regional alliances like the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), and growing criticism of ECOWAS, the regional landscape is shifting fast. This report helps us make sense of these changes and what they mean for the future of peace and cooperation in the region. It sheds light on a crucial issue: the gradual weakening of ECOWAS, once seen as the backbone of regional solidarity. The decision by countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to break away and form their own alliance is a powerful signal. But the report doesn’t stop at listing facts — it digs deeper into why these countries are stepping away from traditional models of cooperation and what that says about the kind of regional leadership West Africa needs today. What makes this document especially compelling is how it connects these regional shifts to the bigger global picture. West Africa is no longer just under the influence of former colonial powers. New players like Russia, China, and Turkey are increasingly present and are reshaping the region’s political and security dynamics. The report helps unpack how these outside influences are impacting not just governments but ordinary people who are already dealing with instability and uncertainty. It reminds us that what happens in West Africa is now shaped by both local decisions and global power plays. Another strength of this report is its focus on peace — not just peace as the absence of war, but as the presence of justice, stability, and inclusion. At a time when coups and military interventions dominate the headlines, this report shifts the conversation back to people: their voices, their rights, and their needs. It emphasizes the importance of listening to communities, investing in inclusive governance, and supporting civil society. It’s a much-needed reminder that lasting peace must be rooted in local realities, not imposed from outside. Ultimately, this is not just a paper for academics. It’s a valuable resource for anyone concerned about the future of West Africa — policymakers, researchers, activists, or simply engaged citizens trying to understand what’s going on. The report doesn’t claim to have all the answers, but it asks the right questions and lays out concrete paths forward. Pourquoi avons-nous choisi ce document ? Ces dernières années, l’Afrique de l’Ouest traverse de profonds bouleversements politiques et sécuritaires. Entre les coups d’État à répétition, la création de nouvelles alliances régionales comme l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES) et les critiques croissantes envers la CEDEAO, le paysage régional se transforme à grande vitesse. Ce rapport nous aide à mieux comprendre ces changements et à en saisir les enjeux pour l’avenir de la paix et de la coopération dans la région. Il met en lumière un point essentiel : la perte d’influence progressive de la CEDEAO, longtemps considérée comme le pilier de la solidarité ouest-africaine. Le retrait de pays comme le Mali, le Burkina Faso et le Niger, qui ont choisi de faire cavalier seul au sein de l’AES, en est un signal fort. Mais au-delà des faits, le rapport cherche à expliquer ce désengagement, à en analyser les causes, et à ouvrir une réflexion sur le type de leadership régional que réclame aujourd’hui l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Ce qui rend ce document particulièrement intéressant, c’est sa capacité à replacer les dynamiques régionales dans un contexte plus large. L’Afrique de l’Ouest n’est plus seulement influencée par ses anciennes puissances coloniales. Désormais, d’autres acteurs comme la Russie, la Chine ou encore la Turquie y prennent une place de plus en plus visible. Le rapport analyse comment ces nouvelles présences modifient les équilibres politiques et sécuritaires, et surtout, comment elles se répercutent concrètement sur le quotidien des populations déjà fragilisées. Il nous montre que les décisions internes des pays ouest-africains ne peuvent plus être comprises sans tenir compte de ces jeux d’influence à l’échelle mondiale. Mais ce qui fait aussi la force de ce rapport, c’est son regard porté sur la paix, pas une paix abstraite ou institutionnelle, mais une paix concrète, qui se construit dans les sociétés, dans les communautés. À l’heure où les coups d’État et les interventions militaires occupent le devant de la scène, ce document rappelle l’importance de redonner la parole aux populations, de renforcer les processus inclusifs, et de miser sur une gouvernance plus proche des réalités locales. Il nous invite à repenser les efforts de paix en partant du terrain, et non d’un modèle unique imposé d’en haut. En fin de compte, ce rapport n’est pas réservé qu’aux experts ou spécialistes. Il interpelle toutes celles et ceux qui s’interrogent sur l’avenir de la région, qu’ils soient décideurs politiques, chercheurs, membres de la société civile ou simples citoyens curieux. Il ne prétend pas tout résoudre, mais il pose les bonnes questions et propose des pistes concrètes, adaptées au contexte actuel.Why do we choose this document
This report doesn’t just analyze what’s happening in West Africa, it offers some powerful takeaways for the countries of the WATHI Zone. In a region facing shared struggles around governance, security, and cooperation, there are a few key lessons that stand out. First, it’s clear that regional institutions like ECOWAS need to rebuild trust. People are losing faith not just in policies, but in the idea that these institutions are working in their best interest. For countries in the WATHI Zone, this means reimagining how regional cooperation works. It’s not enough to hold high-level meetings or issue statements; what matters is how regional bodies respond to the concerns of ordinary people and make their lives better in real, tangible ways. No regional stability is possible without strong foundations at home. The support some military regimes receive, despite their undemocratic nature, speaks to a deeper frustration with elected governments that have failed to deliver. The message is clear: if countries in the WATHI Zone want long-term peace, they need to focus on restoring trust in institutions, fighting corruption, and making sure that leadership is truly accountable to the people. The region needs a new kind of diplomacy, one that listens more and punishes less. The fallout between ECOWAS and countries like Mali and Niger shows that sanctions and top-down pressure often backfire. What’s needed is more patient, behind-the-scenes dialogue, more space for mediation, and a willingness to understand each country’s specific realities. Solutions that come from within are always stronger than those imposed from the outside. Peacebuilding must go beyond political elites and reach communities where the real work of rebuilding trust happens. Across the WATHI Zone, there’s a need to invest in local peace efforts, support civil society, and create spaces for young people, women, and marginalized groups to participate in shaping their future. Peace isn’t just about silencing guns, it’s about giving people the chance to live with dignity and hope. The region can no longer afford to be passive in the face of global power struggles. With countries like Russia, China, and Turkey expanding their presence, WATHI Zone countries need to strengthen their unity and strategic thinking. Acting together, they can better protect their interests and avoid becoming pawns in someone else’s game. In the end, the lesson is simple but urgent: the future of the region depends on leadership that is rooted in the people, grounded in local realities, and open to bold, honest conversations about change. Quelles leçons pour les pays de la zone de WATHI ? Ce rapport ne se contente pas de dresser un état des lieux de la situation en Afrique de l’Ouest. Il nous pousse à réfléchir, surtout dans les pays de la zone WATHI, à ce que ces bouleversements signifient réellement. Face à des défis communs : crise de gouvernance, instabilité, tensions régionales, plusieurs leçons fortes émergent. Il est urgent de reconstruire la confiance dans les institutions régionales. Aujourd’hui, de plus en plus de citoyens s’interrogent sur leur utilité et de leur déconnexion avec la réalité du terrain. Pour les pays de la zone WATHI, cela veut dire qu’il faut repenser en profondeur la manière dont fonctionne la coopération régionale. Elle ne doit pas rester cantonnée aux rencontres et sommets de chefs d’État. Il faut que les citoyens sentent que l’intégration régionale améliore concrètement leur quotidien. La stabilité régionale ne peut exister sans une légitimité forte à l’intérieur de chaque pays. Si certains régimes militaires bénéficient aujourd’hui d’un soutien populaire, c’est souvent parce que les gouvernements élus n’ont pas semblé apporter les réponses idoines. Il y a là une leçon essentielle : il faut renouer avec une gouvernance honnête, transparente et efficace. La reconstruction du lien de confiance entre les dirigeants et les citoyens est la première étape vers une paix durable. La diplomatie régionale doit évoluer. Les approches fondées uniquement sur les sanctions ou les condamnations publiques ont montré leurs limites. Il faut privilégier une diplomatie plus discrète, plus patiente, qui écoute et qui cherche des solutions adaptées à chaque contexte national. Les pays de la zone WATHI ont tout à gagner à promouvoir une médiation apaisée, enracinée dans la réalité locale plutôt que dans des logiques de confrontation. La construction de la paix ne peut être laissée aux seules capitales ou aux élites politiques. Elle commence dans les villages, les quartiers, auprès des communautés. Il faut soutenir les initiatives locales, renforcer la société civile, et surtout donner la parole aux jeunes, aux femmes, aux populations marginalisées. La paix, ce n’est pas juste l’absence de conflit, c’est la possibilité de vivre dignement, d’être écouté et de pouvoir contribuer à son avenir. Enfin, dans un contexte mondial de plus en plus tendu, les pays de la zone WATHI doivent renforcer leur solidarité pour faire face aux influences extérieures. L’entrée en scène d’acteurs comme la Russie, la Chine ou la Turquie oblige à penser stratégiquement. L’unité régionale est indispensable pour défendre nos intérêts, éviter les divisions, et préserver notre autonomie dans un monde en recomposition.What lessons for the countries of the WATHI Zone?
Extracts from pages / Les extraits proviennent des pages : 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
ECOWAS and the Cold War Era (1960-1989)
We often hear reductionist narratives to the effect that ECOWAS was founded by the Treaty of Lagos in 1975 with the sole purpose of promoting economic integration and complete indifference to internal affairs of Member States and that the Community must return to its original vision and leave countries to determine their own political and security pathways. This ahistorical argument ignores the basic fact that, ECOWAS emerged at the height of the Cold War, when the NATO Alliance and the Warsaw Pact Countries ruled the global roost, carved spheres of proxy influence,with China playing the role of Joker and the spectre of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) preventing a nuclear conflagration due to the fierce global competition. The Emergence of the Non-Aligned Movement was the closest attempt by the DevelopingWorld to stay equidistant from the ravaging Global Powers. As a consequence, ECOWAS was founded on the lowest common denominator based on the line of least resistance – economic integration – and nothing more. Thatera laid the foundations for regional economic integration underpinned by the 1979 Protocol on Free Movement of Persons, Goods and Services and the Right of Abode And Establishment – the first such Charter on the Continent.
That Protocol laid the basis for broader free trade agreements such as the Trade Liberalization Scheme,and the rollout of infrastructure in the areas of transport and energy. These initiatives continue today in the guise of the Lagos-Abuja Road/Rail Corridor; the innovativeCommunity Levy Scheme that allowed the Community to be 80% financially self reliant and which has since been copied by the African Union and other sub regional organizations; the elusive search for a common regional currency, the Eco; the WestAfrica Gas Pipeline; the Regional Electricity Regulatory Authority based in Accra; theWest Africa Power Pool based in Cotonou; the Centre for Renewable Energy andEnergy Efficiency in Praia and many more. The Bretton Woods Institutions, which shaped the global financial markets at the time and continue to do so, however, keptAfrica under captive markets, held Africa back from industrialization and perpetuated stunted growth in virtually all sectors.
We often hear reductionist narratives to the effect that ECOWAS was founded by the Treaty of Lagos in 1975 with the sole purpose of promoting economic integration and complete indifference to internal affairs of Member States and that the Community must return to its original vision and leave countries to determine their own political and security pathways
ECOWAS in the Era of a Unipolar world (1989-2011)
Distinguished Participants,1989 stands out as a pivotal moment in the annals of modern history and harbinger to the current geostrategic shifts. It heralded the implosion of the Soviet Union, the eventual demise of the Warsaw Pact, and the hegemony of the United States as the sole Power on earth. The intellectual firepower for the NewWorld Order was provided by two neo-Hegelian exponents. Francis Fukuyama,referencing the dissolution of the Soviet Union in a Summer 1989 essay “End of History?” in National Interest, declared that ‘a global consensus on liberal democracy as the sole legitimate form of government had emerged’ and that‘liberal democracy may constitute the final form of human government and consequently, the end of history’. The Cold War ended with the United States and its allies emerging as the preeminent global force, dictating a new rules-based international order; Russia was weakened, and China was yet to flex its economic muscle. These circumstances ironically favoured the emergence of ‘multilateralism’ between 1989 and, for West Africa, 2011, under Pax Americana.
Shorn of the security shield hitherto provided by the opposing Global Powers, military, dictatorial, and autocratic rulers in Africa were exposed to the pent-up frustration and anger of citizens across Africa. The period saw the zenith of citizen action in West Africa, not seen since the anti-colonial struggles of the 1960s. The period was also marked by the flourishing of multiparty democracy, where the ballot ruled over the gun. Under The circumstances also, countries that could not absorb the shock descended into outright civil wars that threatened to spread across the region, such asLiberia and Sierra Leone. The interconnectedness and mutually reinforcing relationship between security and development became too obvious to ignore. Though the focus of ECOWAS integration from the onset was on developmental regionalism underpinned by market integration, it could not ignore the debilitating impacts of political and security meltdown on the development agenda. Thus, West Africa, under the aegis of ECOWAS, rose to the occasion on three fronts. Firstly, guided by the axiom African solutions to African problems,the Organization intervened to end the civil wars.
Over the years, ECOWAS has brokered peace processes in the region including in Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, The Gambia, Liberia, Burkina Faso,Togo, Mali and Sierra Leone. Secondly, ECOWAS developed a vanguard normative framework to guide State behaviour, such as the Declaration of Political Principles(1991), the ECOWAS Revised Treaty (1993); the Protocol on the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution,Peacekeeping and Security (1999); the Supplementary Protocol onDemocracy and Good Governance (2001); and the ECOWAS ConflictPrevention Framework (2008), among others. Finally, ECOWAS set about establishing a governance architecture,with the transformation of the ECOWAS Secretariat into a Commission In 2007 followed by the establishment of a Community Parliament andCommunity Court of Justice, and many other sectoral agencies, tospur the regional integration agenda. The declared objective of all these endeavours was to transform the Community from an ECOWAS of States to an ECOWAS of People.
The Cold War ended with the United States and its allies emerging as the preeminent global force, dictating a new rules-based international order; Russia was weakened, and China was yet to flex its economic muscle. These circumstances ironically favoured the emergence of ‘multilateralism’ between 1989 and, for West Africa, 2011, under Pax Americana
Thus seen, up until about 2020, every West African nation had undergone some measure of democratic reform and chose its leaders through the ballot box. The period also witnessed the unprecedented frequency with which incumbents were defeated at the ballot box leading to alternations of power,even if not a turnround in the fortunes of the governed. Military incursions into politics were rare, and those that occurred were quickly reversed thanks to regional and united international pressure that multilateralism ensured.However, liberal democracy as practiced in West Africa, comes with fatal flaws that requires open-heart surgery if it is to survive the current global turbulence.
ECOWAS in a multipolar world and possible resurgence of proxy wars (2011-…)
Distinguished Ladies and Gentlemen,It is my measured view that the mismanagement of the post-Cold War Opportunities of genuine win-win global governance, spurred not least by the euphoria of triumphalism and overreach that followed the dissolution of the Soviet Union, as well as the growing tensions between Modernization andWesternization by ignoring cultural and historical factors, combined to midwife multipolarity. In West Africa, the assassination of Muamar Gaddafi in 2011 dramatically transformed the asymmetric conflict environment by injecting terrorism of mass destruction into the conflict-prone Sahel, already groaning under separatist rebellions. On the geopolitical and geostrategic fronts, four broad tendencies can be discerned:Tensions between liberal democracy forces and the push towards autocracy/military dictatorship; Acute and rapidly spreading insecurity engendered by terrorism and violent extremism amidst the Jihadist agenda to create Caliphates on the continent, instrumentalizing faith and identity while asserting illegal control of natural resources, taxation; and Contradictions between growing interdependence and collapse of multilateralism amidst inexorable rise of multipolarity, exemplified by fragmentation and transient alliances, such as: The NATO Alliance (Collective West); the BRICS Plus (Brazil, China, Russia, India, SouthAfrica and growing); the Medium Powers (The conflicting Gulf States,Turkey and Israel; as well as the North African rivals (Algeria andMorocco).
Revolution in Digital Technology that has facilitated AI-enabled autonomous weapons systems, the explosion of social media and the spread of misinformation and disinformation. Thus observed, these developments have enabled forum shopping by swapping external partners with differing viewpoints and interests and portend a possible new pivot towards proxy wars akin to the Cold War Experiences of 1945 to 1989. ECOWAS was slow to react to the seismic geostrategic shifts.
DEBILITATING FACTORS UNDERLYING CURRENT GOVERNANCE CRISIS WITHIN THE ECOWAS SPACE
Much as the political and geostrategic factors have facilitated the current malaise within the Organization, it is obvious that the state of captured liberal democracy amidst chronic governance deficits has led to mass disenchantment across the region and ruptured the social contract between the citizenry and the State.Governance and development deficits (State capture, economic mismanagement, currency instability, retreat from the periphery,marginalization and selective provision of basic services; retreat into identity politics; corruption – Erosion of the social contract between the citizenry and the State.Manipulation of constitutional and electoral norms.Weaponization of the judiciary and the instrumentalization of security forces to silence dissent and enable unconstitutional maintenance of power.The youth bulge – unemployment, underemployment.Perceived control of internal governance decisions by external power.
ECOWAS and Relations with Sahelian States: A Strategic Perspective on the Architecture of Security (AES)
Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, THE ‘ALLIANCE OF ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government, at its 66th Ordinary Summit on 15 December 2024, formally acknowledged the decision by Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to withdraw from the Community on 29 January 2025, following their earlier decision to do so on 28 January 2024 and in line withArticle 91 of the ECOWAS Revised Treaty. In taking the decision, the Authority left the door open for their automatic reintegration into the Community should they have a change of mind by 29 July 2025. In addition, the Authority appointed President Diomaye Faye of Senegal to join forces with President Faure Gnassingbe of Togo to pursue dialogue with the three countries with a view to encouraging them to return to the Community.
As You may be aware, the Chair of Authority, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria And other Heads of State, notably President John Dramani Mahama of Ghana, are pursuing similar engagements to the same end. Further, the Authority decided to grant the citizens of the three countries the enjoyment of the privileges under the Protocol on Free Movement until further notice, while instructing the Commission to draw up contingency plans for divorce negotiations with regard to the nature of rupture (hard or soft), and assets and liabilities between ECOWAS and each of the three countries. ECOWAS has, in addition, invited the three countries to cooperate with theCommunity in the security and humanitarian spheres, sources of existential threat to the entire Region. In adopting a conciliatory and pragmatic approach to the three breakaway countries, ECOWAS is acutely aware of the reputational damage that a permanent split would inflict on both parties. ECOWAS is a Community of citizens bound by centuries of solidarity based on historical, geographical, and cultural affinity and contiguity. ECOWAS, however, is a rules-based Community bound by instruments,values, and norms that all Member States have freely signed up to, including theConstitutional Convergence Principles for membership.
Special Summit on the Future of Regional Integration and Multilateralism in West Africa
With this in mind, the Authority of Heads of State and Government has directed the Commission to facilitate the commemoration of this milestone on two tracks – celebratory and reflective. The celebratory aspect will involve showcasing ECOWAS achievements, the Community’s cultural unity and diversity, outreach engagements, publicity, honouring deserving sons and daughters, and renewing our commitment to the regional integration project. The festive activities will be launched here in Accra,next week, and will be observed in all Member States, culminating in Lagos,Nigeria, where the ECOWAS Treaty was adopted on 28 May 1975. The reflection aspect will entail dispassionate bottom-up deliberations across the Region on all aspects of the regional integration project. The key actors will be citizens across all spectrums of endeavour: traditional and regional leaders; civil society organizations, the media, opinion leaders; women and youth; academic and research institutions, the private sector; organized labour, etc.
In taking the decision, the Authority left the door open for their automatic reintegration into the Community should they have a change of mind by 29 July 2025. In addition, the Authority appointed President Diomaye Faye of Senegal to join forces with President Faure Gnassingbe of Togo to pursue dialogue with the three countries with a view to encouraging them to return to the Community
The thematic areas provisionally include, but are not limited to:Interrogating the approach to regional peace, security and stability; Democracy, Constitutionalism, and Good Governance;Pathways to sustainable and inclusive development, industrialization and regional integration; Financing the Agricultural Sector; Digital Transformation, New Technologies, AI, and Social Media; andPartnerships in the Era of Multipolarity. It is anticipated that the key outcomes of the exercise will be synthesized into a Compact that will be scaled up for adoption by the ECOWAS decision making organs at a Special Summit on the Future of Regional Integration. In essence, the Special Summit will serve as a rallying point for people across the region to reimagine and recommit to a collective path forward,embracing regional integration as the bedrock of our shared future. While the preparation for the holding of the Special Summit is still at the planning stage, let me assure you that WANEP, SSRC and CORN and other regional CSOnetworks will be involved to actively participate in the events, consultations, andmeetings leading to this historic Summit. I dare say that the great ideas that would be harnessed at this meeting would certainly find their way into some of the reflections and discussions that would be had as part of the preparatory documents to be considered by the Authority.
ECOWAS and Civil Society: The Future of Democratic Governance and Inclusive Development
Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,You will no doubt agree with me that ECOWAS, at various stages of its evolution,has actively sought to integrate civil society in its endeavours. ECOWAS facilitated the emergence of the West Africa Civil Society Forum (WACSOF), with mixed results; has maintained WANEP and other networks as valued partners over the years, and prioritized the role of citizens in various strategic documents, such as theECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework. With the help of Civil Society, and for the purpose of organically integrating citizen voices in regional integration, the ECOWAS Commission has, since late 2023,begun the process of engagements with various stakeholders with the aim of establishing the Economic, Social and Cultural Council – West Africa (ECOSOCC-WA)as an institutional interface between citizens and decision-makers.
I strongly harbour the hope that your deliberations here will culminate in, among other conclusions, drawing up a framework and modalities to advocate for the speedy establishment of ECOSOCC-WA, provision for which is contained in the ECOWAS Revised Treaty of 1993. In the same vein, with the support of constitutional experts, ECOWAS is presently undertaking a review of the 2001 Supplementary Protocol on Democracy And Good Governance. This review process embeds concrete mechanisms and processes to re-negotiate social contracts between government and citizens, where such has collapsed, enlisting Community civil society to play renewed an active role in charting the future of the region.