Author: West African Climate Alliance on Carbon Markets and Climate Finance
Publication site: West African Climate Alliance
Date of publication: October 2025
Type of publication: Report
Framework
Climate change is an existential and systemic challenge of our time. The world is witnessing an intensification of extreme events such as prolonged droughts, unprecedented storms, shifting precipitation patterns, sea level rise with increasing pressure on ecosystems and human livelihoods. These phenomena highlight the urgent need for decisive global and national responses.
Cabo Verde positions itself as a proactive Small Island Developing State, advancing integrated climate action through coherent national policies and strategic international partnerships. For SIDS, and particularly Cabo Verde, climate risks are especially acute. The country’s Insularity, limited land area, geographical remoteness, and high dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, water and tourism, as well as heavy reliance on external energy sources, make the archipelago highly vulnerable to climate disruptions. Cabo Verde has been fully integrating the global climate agenda, anchoring its commitments under the Paris Agreement. By becoming a party to the Paris Agreement, the country has committed to developing and communicating its Nationally Determined Contributions as the main instrument for defining mitigation and adaptation strategies aligned with the goal of limiting global warming to less than 1.5 °C.
In 2015, Cabo Verde began its journey with the submission of its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, a document that marked the first formal expression of the country’s commitment under the Paris Agreement. The iNDC established Cabo Verde’s ambitions and strategic orientation in terms of mitigation and adaptation, identifying priority sectors, namely energy, waste, agriculture, water resources and coastal areas, and defining the first emission reduction scenarios and international support needs in terms of financing, technology and capacity building. This commitment was significantly reinforced in 2020 with the submission of NDC 2.0, which increased ambition, expanded sectoral coverage and strengthened institutional mechanisms. NDC 2.0 introduced more ambitious mitigation targets, broadened adaptation sectors and reinforced transparency through an improved monitoring, reporting and verification framework. It was supported by expanded interministerial coordination, the establishment of sectoral climate units and the mainstreaming of climate action across policy domains.
Cabo Verde positions itself as a proactive Small Island Developing State, advancing integrated climate action through coherent national policies and strategic international partnerships. For SIDS, and particularly Cabo Verde, climate risks are especially acute
Under NDC 2.0, Cabo Verde committed to reducing emissions by 18% compared to a business-as-usual scenario by 2030 or 24% with international support and set a long-term objective of carbon neutrality by 2050. At the same time, Cabo Verde has been promoting continuous national action to integrate climate resilience and low-carbon development into its policy and planning framework. Since the publication of the National Adaptation Programme of Action in 2007, the country has identified priority measures in the areas of water management, agriculture, coastal zones and ecosystem protection.
These initiatives culminated in the drafting and approval of the National Adaptation Plan, which aligns adaptation strategies with the NDC and the national development vision. Cabo Verde has also been strengthening its capacity for emissions reporting and climate transparency through the submission of its first Biennial Update Report. This instrument includes more robust greenhouse gas inventories, better institutional coordination and more consistent data systems, and also contributes to the design and review of mitigation and adaptation measures. Climate governance in Cabo Verde has evolved progressively, based on strategic and regulatory instruments that ensure consistency between climate policy and national development.
Resolution No. 16/2009 establishes the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change, the body responsible for coordinating national climate policy and liaising with the UNFCCC, ensuring alignment with international commitments and interministerial coordination. Since then, the country has consolidated its framework for action through several sectoral plans and strategies that integrate the climate variable into their policies, programmes and targets.
A key milestone in this process is the Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Development Strategy for Cabo Verde, a crucial document that provides a long-term roadmap to guide the country’s decarbonisation pathway towards carbon neutrality. The LT-LEDS establishes the strategic foundations for deep emission reductions across all sectors and serves as a guiding framework for successive NDCs, ensuring that each iteration advances in alignment with the long-term vision of sustainable, low-emission development. Through this coherent architecture, Cabo Verde continues to consolidate a results-oriented climate governance model, linking public policy, sectoral planning and climate finance, while leveraging strategic international partnerships and national innovation. In 2025, Cabo Verde will submit its updated Nationally Determined Contribution, further reinforcing ambition and previous commitments in accordance with Article 4.11 of the Paris Agreement.
Climate profile
Cabo Verde’s climate regime is fundamental to the country’s vulnerability and adaptive capacity, shaping both socioeconomic development and policy priorities. Continuous monitoring and detailed climate analysis provide the scientific foundation for informed risk management, resilience planning and effective climate action. Historical Climate Trends Cabo Verde’s climate is characterised by a tropical arid and semi-arid regime, with marked inter-annual and spatial variability in rainfall and temperature. Historical climate analyses reveal a consistent warming trend across the archipelago over the past decades. Average air temperature has increased by approximately 0.14 °C per decade, corresponding to an overall warming of around 0.7 °C over the past 50 years.
However, localised observations indicate stronger warming, with the mean air temperature rising by up to 1.0 °C, and minimum temperatures increasing by about 1.5 °C suggesting warmer nights and early mornings across several islands. Observed temperature increases and rainfall variability heighten the urgency for climate-informed water management and agricultural adaptation strategies. In contrast, rainfall patterns have shown high variability and no statistically significant long-term trend. While the national average points to a slight decrease in total annual precipitation, some local stations recorded minor positive trends.
Overall, rainfall remains irregular, concentrated between August and October, and interspersed with extended dry periods that exacerbate water scarcity and land degradation. Analysis of extreme weather events indicates a significant increase in the frequency of heatwave days, particularly in the Sal Island reference station of the National Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics. The number of days classified as “severe” and “extreme” heat events has increased markedly since the 1990s. Similarly, the frequency of heavy rainfall events with potential for local flooding has increased in most monitoring stations. In Praia, the number of such days rose by about 25% between 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. Cabo Verde has also experienced prolonged droughts as a recurrent hazard, with one of the most severe events recorded in 2017, more than four decades after the previous comparable episode.
Recent multi-year droughts have resulted in significant agricultural losses and heightened stress on rural water supply systems, underscoring the cross-sectoral impacts of climate extremes. These trends underscore the country’s growing exposure to climate extremes, including heat stress, erratic rainfall, and multi-year droughts that affect agriculture, water resources and rural livelihoods. Cabo Verde participates in regional early warning initiatives and invests in strengthening meteorological infrastructure to increase preparedness and adaptive capacity. Analysis of disaster loss data and risk mapping shows that improved forecasting and community engagement are critical to reducing vulnerability to climate shocks.
Future Climate Projections
Climate model projections indicate that Cabo Verde will experience continued warming throughout the 21st century, with magnitude depending on the global emissions pathway. Under the high-emissions scenario, annual mean air temperature is projected to rise by more than 3.0 °C by 2100, compared to the 1961–1991 baseline. Even under the low-emissions scenario, the expected warming reaches around 1.5 °C. Projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 further suggest a decline in total annual rainfall of up to 30% by the end of the century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This reduction would intensify aridity, increase evapotranspiration, and exacerbate drought and water stress conditions across the islands.
Climate model projections indicate that Cabo Verde will experience continued warming throughout the 21st century, with magnitude depending on the global emissions pathway
Results from regional dynamic downscaling confirm the general warming trend but present some differences in precipitation projections. While global models indicate overall drying, the regional model projects localised increases in rainfall under the low-emission scenario, particularly in the southern part of the country. Under the high-emission scenario, the model points to a reduction in rainfall over most areas, with only limited increases in the south. Spatially and seasonally, warming is not uniform. The strongest temperature anomalies are projected for the August and October period, coinciding with the traditional rainy season. During these months, warming could reach 2.0 °C under SSP1-2.6 and up to 3.5 °C under SSP5-8.5, particularly in the northeastern and eastern islands. Such changes would further stress freshwater availability, ecosystem integrity, and food security.
Understanding these patterns is essential for shaping effective, locally tailored adaptation measures and prioritizing investment in climate resilience, linking scientific evidence directly to policy choices and community action.
Climate impacts
Understanding observed and projected climate trends is essential to guide national planning and risk management. Cabo Verde has been strengthening climate monitoring and vulnerability assessment in order to integrate scientific knowledge into the definition of adaptation priorities. In this context, the climate profile presented supports the identification of the main risks affecting the country and requiring urgent action to protect populations, economic sectors and ecosystems. The following figure summarizes these risks and their cross-cutting impacts on national development.