Introduction

Cameroon is a democracy located in central Africa with a population of 27.9 million in 2022 and an average GDP growth rate of 4-5% (World Bank, 2024). The country holds elections every seven years, but the political situation of the country has deteriorated since 2016 igniting concerns about the economic impact of the upcoming elections. With the Presidential elections set to take place in 2025, investors and civil society alike are bracing for potential financial implications.

While economic growth will not be directly impacted, it could exacerbate tensions in the South and North West region, damage investor confidence and discourage investments. This article explores the potential economic implications of the upcoming presidential elections in 2025, with a particular focus on political stability, governance, public sentiment, and diplomacy.

The Anglophone Crisis Persists

As the crisis in the Anglophone regions continued for its eighth year and has already led to the displacement of 598,000 people were internally displaced as of August and at least 2 million people needed humanitarian aid in the North-West and South-West. Separatists are attacking schools, students, and education professionals, destroying buildings, and depriving hundreds of thousands of children of their fundamental right to education.

Boko Haram in the North of Cameroon

The Boko Haram sect began its attacks in Cameroon in 2014 and has continued ever since. Over 80 citizens have been killed since 2020 and over 321,000 people have been internally displaced. Attacks in the far North persist and scores of citizens have been killed between January and April impacting socioeconomic development in one of the poorest regions in the country.

Government Spending Priorities will not Change Dramatically

The upcoming elections may influence government spending priorities but will not change it dramatically. The current government will continue to consolidate its debt while prioritizing spending in key sectors and any new government will likely overhaul some investment decisions and prioritise more locally-oriented products. Suppose there is a change in leadership or policy direction.

In that case, new investments may be directed toward infrastructure development or social programs to alleviate poverty—currently affecting over 10 million people in Cameroon who are considered poor. We caution against over-investment in social safety nets as Cameroon’s has a fiscal deficit. On the other hand, if President Biya remains in power, there is a risk of stagnation in reform efforts, and little accountability as political aloofness could be rewarded.

International Relations Will Stand Pat on the back of Aid

The international context also plays a role in shaping Cameroon’s economic outlook during this election period. The elections will not cause any particular re-think in partnerships, but while the United States and the United Kingdom are more likely to hold us to account, Europe and France will remain on the sidelines. Election monitors will be there, but France’s position in central Africa precludes more active participation.

The current government will continue to consolidate its debt while prioritizing spending in key sectors and any new government will likely overhaul some investment decisions and prioritise more locally-oriented products. Suppose there is a change in leadership or policy direction.

To maintain donations, the incumbents will try to ensure fairness or the illusion of it. Low voter turnout in the South and North West will boost support for Rassemblement Démocratique du Peuple Camerounais (RDPC) but the young are the sands are shifting and mouvement pour la Renaissance led by Maurice Kamoti is a credible contender of the unity palace. Support or condemnation from foreign governments can affect Cameroon’s diplomatic relations and access to international funding or aid. As a reformist, Maurice Kamto who has faced house arrest and slander can provide a different path for the country, but his policies are credible and not costly. As such, there is concern that big government will make his government impractical.