Political Transformation

Stateness

The state’s monopoly on the use of force is also challenged in the remote Extreme North Region. In recent years, the Islamist group Boko Haram has become increasingly active, partly because Cameroonian troops were redeployed in Anglophone regions. There are numerous self-defense vigilante groups with approximately 14,000 members who face criticism for their involvement in criminal activities such as cattle stealing, smuggling, and banditry.

Similarly, the fallout from the conflict in the Central African Republic (CAR) affects Cameroon’s eastern border. Armed groups participate in banditry and kidnapping, leading to frequent border shutdowns and limiting commerce. The proliferation of state-sponsored vigilante groups, especially in the Northwest and Southwest Regions, further indicates that the state’s military forces struggle to maintain a monopoly on the use of force.

A large percentage of the population accepts that Cameroon is a legitimate nation state, and there are very few issues with equal access to citizenship rights and related issues. However, historic tensions with English-speaking regions present a significant challenge to state identity.

Anglophone identity is linked to Cameroon’s unique bifurcated colonial heritage, which led to a federation between a larger French Speaking and a smaller English-speaking territory. A process of political centralization and the abandonment of federalism in 1972 have raised perceptions of cultural, economic, and political discrimination among Anglophones. In many circles, this was referred to as the “Anglophone problem.” Until recently, most Anglophone demands have not extended beyond the notion of a unified Cameroon.

The conflict with Boko Haram in northern Cameroon also has lingering effects on state identity. Recruitment of Cameroonian youth has often been forced or motivated by economic concerns. However, Boko Haram also deliberately targeted members of the Kanuri group, who have cross-border cultural and familial ties. More broadly, the historically limited authority of the central government in Cameroon’s periphery regions raises concerns about state identity.

Political participation

Multiparty elections and near-universal suffrage have been extended since 1992. However, there are persistent concerns about electoral integrity. While outright fraud has declined, opposition parties have rejected results and accused the election management body ELECAM of bias. The president appoints all members of ELECAM, and there are persistent issues with voter registration and election management. Elections have been postponed twice for political purposes, and state-run media does not ensure equal access to all major candidates and parties. Incumbent President Paul Biya has been in power since 1982 and removed term limits in 2008.

Anglophone identity is linked to Cameroon’s unique bifurcated colonial heritage, which led to a federation between a larger French Speaking and a smaller English-speaking territory. A process of political centralization and the abandonment of federalism in 1972 have raised perceptions of cultural, economic, and political discrimination among Anglophones. In many circles, this was referred to as the “Anglophone problem.” Until recently, most Anglophone demands have not extended beyond the notion of a unified Cameroon

In 2020, legislative and municipal elections were held amidst a tense security environment in English speaking regions. The SDF and Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) boycotted the elections over concerns about the security environment and the impartiality of elections. Turnout in Anglophone regions was abysmally low, and candidates who participated in the election process were violently targeted by separatist groups. Similarly, the regional council elections of December 2020 were boycotted by the main opposition parties.

In principle, the constitution guarantees freedom of association and assembly, but in practice, these rights are significantly curtailed. Citizens can create associations and political parties. There are currently over 100 registered political parties and numerous civil society groups. However, in January 2017 the government used its authority under the 2014 anti-terror bill to ban two Anglophone advocacy groups: The Southern Cameroon National Council (SCNC) and the Cameroon Anglophone Civil Society Consortium (CACSC).

The constitution guarantees freedom of expression, including for members of the press and other media. However, while Cameroon has a rich media landscape with over 500 outlets, freedom of expression is significantly restricted. State media is under strict government control and private media outlet representatives are often intimidated. Cameroon’s media regulatory body, the National Communication Council (CNC) frequently bans newspapers and sanctions journalists for reporting on censored issues and spreading supposedly false information.

Stability of Democratic Institutions

Cameroon is an autocracy with a façade of democratic republican institutions that have not developed a life of their own. The National Assembly and the Senate cannot be considered democratic institutions. Rather, these institutions are arenas where the regime can placate the ambitions of elites through patronage and corruption. Deficiencies in terms of democracy and rule of law are deep-rooted and are an inherent element of the political architecture on which Paul Biya’s rule rests.This bleak reality is mirrored in popular attitudes that reflect increasing disappointment in democracy in Cameroon.

The president’s centralization of power means that he can manipulate institutions to position supporters and punish detractors. The president weakens democratic institutions by holding cabinet meetings only at random. The ruling party, the CPDM does not convene regular party congresses, as the party’s chairman, President Biya, decides even these. There is no apparent institutional mechanism within the ruling party for choosing a successor, and a succession crisis is likely at some point in the future that could further destabilize democratic institutions.

Level of Socioeconomic Development

Cameroon’s economic structure and performance do not meet the criteria for a socially responsible market democracy. Despite making significant improvements in poverty alleviation and human development since the 1990s, Cameroon still ranks low and improvement has stalled. Only one of the Millennium Development Goals – net school enrollment – has been met, and many have deteriorated since the start of the Anglophone Crisis. Although the situation had greatly improved by 2022, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a lingering impact on small and medium-sized businesses, with female-led microenterprises being particularly affected.

In addition, socio economic development is strongly influenced by persistent inequalities. More than 40% of the population resides in rural areas, with poverty highly concentrated in the rural Extreme North and East Regions. Moreover, approximately 33% of the urban population resides in slums with inadequate sanitation conditions. When accounting for inequality, Cameroon’s HDI value drops to 0.318, which is significantly below the average for Medium HDI countries (0.483). The most recent available data on the Gini coefficient dates back to 2014 and indicates a high level of income equality (46.6). Gender inequality is also a concern, particularly evident in disparities in education acquisition and labor force participation. Currently, Cameroon’s Gender Inequality Index stands at 0.56, slightly above the average for Medium HDI countries (0.489).

The president’s centralization of power means that he can manipulate institutions to position supporters and punish detractors. The president weakens democratic institutions by holding cabinet meetings only at random. The ruling party, the CPDM does not convene regular party congresses, as the party’s chairman, President Biya, decides even these. There is no apparent institutional mechanism within the ruling party for choosing a successor, and a succession crisis is likely at some point in the future that could further destabilize democratic institutions

Economic Performance

Cameroon is CEMAC’s largest and most diversified economy, but several challenges restrict its potential for growth. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, real GDP per capita did not increase between 2020 and 2022. In 2021, real per capita growth was 0.9%. However, growth per capita decreased by -2.0 in 2020. In 2021, GDP per capita in PPP was $4,064.

Cameroon’s growth is sustained by debt-funded government investments in infrastructure and public works, a limited number of sectors primarily dependent on world prices for raw materials and a small formal sector. Some economic sectors continue to suffer from the Anglophone Crisis, primarily the palm oil and banana industries. Foreign investment was only 1.7% of GDP in 2021, compared to 2.6% the year before.

Inflation is less of a problem. In 2021 and 2020, it was 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. Official unemployment rates seem low (3.9% and 3.8%), but are of little significance, given the large informal sector. Debt remains a problem, with public debt accounting for 45.5% and 44.9% of total debt in 2021 and 2020, respectively.

Sustainability

The current legal and regulatory environment is inadequate for these challenges. Cameroon is a signatory to the Convention on Biological Diversity, and participates in other regional and global environmental efforts, including the 2015 Paris Accords. Cameroon has a National Climate Change Observatory (ONACC), but this has not resulted in any policy changes. The Ministry of Environment, Nature Protection and Sustainable Development (MINIPED) has piloted reforestation programs, but there is no new legislation on the horizon. Likewise, MINIPED was consulted during the development of the 2020 National Development Strategy, but no concrete policies have yet to emerge as a result.

Cameroon has made progress in education policy, most notably with its increased literacy rate and near 100% enrollment in primary school education (primary school fees were abolished in 2000), although secondary rates have decreased to just 40%. Public expenditure on education has been relatively constant over the past 10 years  Cameroon’s United Nations Education Index has likewise been approximately 0.5 for the past decade. Little data exists for expenditures on research and development.

Despite this progress, there are serious issues with the educational system. There are regional disparities in levels of access, and enrollments are far lower in the North and the Extreme North Regions. Levels of income and gender also lead to unequal levels of access to educational opportunities. Absenteeism of teachers and corruption in the Ministry of Education and school education have impacted the quality of education.