Auteur : Frédéric Lejeal
Author : Initiative pour la transition démocratique
Site of publication: BTI
Type of publication: Report
Date of publication: 2024
Stateness
The state maintains nationwide control over the use of force. There are no active armed rebel groups originating from Benin within the country. However, in recent months, Benin has faced jihadist attacks from neighboring countries, particularly Burkina Faso. Since 2019, terrorist attacks and kidnappings have been on the rise, with the northern region experiencing regular infiltrations by terrorist groups.
Areas such as the W and Pendjari national parks, as well as the Alibori and Atakora regions, have been particularly targeted. Several attacks on police stations have also been reported, primarily in the north of the country. In response, Benin is on high alert for terrorist activities. The government has increased its military presence at border bases. There has been an increase in reports of radical Islamic preachers entering the country. To combat this, the government has established the National Commission to Combat Radicalization, Violent Extremism, and Terrorism (CNLRET).
In rural areas, conflicts between herders and farmers have been reported, especially in the lower Ouémé Valley and the Niger Valley, where groups that also settle in Niger and Nigeria reside. The peaceful parliamentary elections held in January 2023 provide hope for a return to social cohesion. However, crime remains a serious issue that has not been effectively addressed. Incidents of road and armed robberies occur regularly, despite the merger of the police and gendarmerie into a unified force called the Republican Police in January 2018, with the aim to enhance crime-fighting capabilities.
Generally, religious pluralism and tolerance are the rule. There are some preoccupations for the rise of evangelical groups and local religions (Voodoo, Banamè church) and their close relationships to politicians. The risk that Muslim extremism might spill over from neighboring countries such as Nigeria or Mali, especially in the north, has materialized in recent months, although only in rather isolated incidents. Individual extremist preachers are common, though there is no reliable information about either the extent of their influence or their connection to jihadist groups.
Political participation
Free and fair elections have been the norm in Benin from 1990 to 2016, where all candidates could contest elections. However, the reforms introduced by President Talon erected a major barrier that severely limited the participation of several political parties in the April 2019 legislative elections and hindered opposition candidates in the following elections.
These barriers included a dramatic increase in the deposit candidates have to pay (nonrefundable with less than 10% of votes), demanding that presidential candidates be sponsored by at least 10% of members of parliament and mayors, requesting that candidates include proof they owe no taxes in their applications, and increasing the costs for setting up political parties. All these provisions contribute to restricting political and electoral spaces. As a result, it became easy for whoever is in power to decide: (i) who can be presidential election candidates by controlling the sponsorship process (as in 2021), (ii) who can be candidates for legislative elections (like the legislative elections in 2023, when people on the opposition party’s list were denied proof of no tax obligations).
The presidential elections held in April 2021 took place without the participation of opposition candidates, such as Rekya Madougou and Joel Aivo, who were rejected because they had not obtained the required number of sponsors to field a candidate, 16 deputies and/or mayors. The electoral administration is sufficiently independent but disorganized. The Autonomous National Electoral Commission (CENA), initially appointed on a temporary basis, was turned into a permanent body in 2014.
Freedom of expression is constitutionally guaranteed (since 1990) and individuals are free to organize themselves into political parties or non-governmental associations. However, the recent political reforms adopted by the Talon regime have introduced a number of restrictions. For example, the new charter of political parties adopted in July 2018 requires the mobilization of at least 1,155 founding members at the national level (15 per commune) compared with 120 (10 per department) previously. Although freedom of association is still recognized, the exercise of this right has been restricted.
Organization of the Market and Competition
In January 2022, the Beninese government published its Second Government Action Plan (PAG II) with a budget of $20.6 billion. The PAG II lists more than 340 projects in 23 sectors and has a new focus on education and social services. Potential infrastructure projects include road, airport and railway construction, port expansion, housing, telecommunications, information technology and energy development. For investors who wish to establish a business in Benin, the government has established a stand-alone one-stop shop to facilitate registration of new businesses within two days.
The introduction of deadlines for deeds of transfer of property, the new online cadastral map, and the establishment of a dispute management process have all contributed to the improved performance of the country. However, Benin’s business environment remains poor, and the informal sector dominates the economy. Despite the progress made, poor energy and transport infrastructure constitute major challenges.
Freedom of expression is constitutionally guaranteed (since 1990) and individuals are free to organize themselves into political parties or non-governmental associations. However, the recent political reforms adopted by the Talon regime have introduced a number of restrictions. For example, the new charter of political parties adopted in July 2018 requires the mobilization of at least 1,155 founding members at the national level (15 per commune) compared with 120 (10 per department) previously. Although freedom of association is still recognized, the exercise of this right has been restricted
Benin has a liberal institutional trade framework, but commercial exchanges are hampered by a lack of modern technical equipment and bureaucratic barriers. Benin is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), under whose rules trade is to a great extent liberalized.
The financial sector in Benin has developed considerably from a very low starting point. It is relatively differentiated and aligned, in principle, with international standards. However, the sector suffers from institutional weaknesses. Due to a large informal economy and widespread poverty, relatively few enterprises have access to the banking system. The financial system remains underdeveloped. Banks have continued to increase their domestic assets, and there are many microfinance institutions, but overall access to credit remains limited. Assessing the quality of the banking sector quantitatively is difficult as recent numbers on non-performing loans and other indicators do not exist.
Economic Performance
The World Bank also reports that, due to expansionary fiscal policies, the fiscal deficit increased from 4.7% of GDP in 2020 to 5.7% of GDP in 2021. The budget deficit grew in 2021 to 6.1% of GDP. Public debt was 49.1% of GDP in 2021 against 46.1% in 2020. But the risk of debt distress remains moderate, according to the World Bank.
Overall revenues remained fairly steady. GDP per capita grew from $3,505 in 2020 to $3,769 in 2021, a growth of 3.8%. Response plans significantly increased government expenditure during the 2020/2021 period. Fiscal measures adopted to support the purchasing power of households put a strain on public accounts so that the deficit is expected to remain high in 2022.
According to the African Development Bank, the current account deficit is estimated to have doubled in 2021, reaching 3.7% of GDP, due to a 64.5% decrease in public transfers; the financial system was strengthened with the fall in the rate of outstanding loans to 14.8% in September 2021 from 17% in September 2020. The national poverty rate was 38.5%, while, in 2021, unemployment was 1.6%, underemployment 72%, and informal employment 90.1%. Foreign exchange reserves are forecast to increase to six months of import cover on average in 2022/2023.