Notes

The emerging political crisis in Guinea-Bissau, triggered by the president, Umaru Sissoco Embaló’s decision to remain in power after the expiration of his constitutional mandate, has provoked strong opposition both within and outside the country.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) recently ended their mission in search of a solution and to fix a date for presidential elections after Embaló ordered the expulsion of the delegation from the country.

In a statement on March 2, ECOWAS said its team, together with the UNOWAS team, had met Embaló, other politicians and civil society groups to try to reach a consensus on when the elections should be held. It said it had “prepared a draft agreement on a roadmap for elections in 2025 and had started presenting it to the stakeholders for their consent”.

The West African regional bloc deployed the mission between February 21 and 28, but the team left on March 1 after Embaló’s threats, highlighting ongoing political instability in Guinea-Bissau.

Embaló’s shifting stance contradicts his advocacy for strict adherence to democratic principle while he was ECOWAS Chairperson between 2022 and 2023, and highlights his past as a military officer and prime minister, amid accusations of political manoeuvring.

Embaló postponed the country’s presidential election, which were scheduled for December 2024, to November 2025, citing logistical and financial challenges. The opposition insist his term has expired, though a Supreme Court ruling extended it to September 2025.

A former brigadier general in the national army, Embaló ran as the head of the Movimento para Alternância Democrática, Grupo dos 15 (Madem G15)—a breakaway party from PAIGC—during the 2019 presidential elections. He claimed 53.5 percent of the vote against his closest rival, former prime minister Domingos Simoēs Pereira’s 46.5 percent in disputed results.

In January, the Inclusive Patriotic Alliance (API-Cabas Garandi) insisted that as of February 27, 2025, Embaló would no longer be considered the legitimate President of the country and will be treated as the “former President of the Republic, due to vacancy of the post”. The API-CG and the Inclusive Alliance Plataforma Aliança Inclusiva–Terra Ranka (PAI-TR) also recently accused Embaló of having an “authoritarian, arrogant and disrespectful behavior towards the High-Level Mission of ECOWAS/UNOWAS”.

The opposition coalitions strongly condemned the president’s “irresponsible and shameful attitude” towards the Mission, insisting that, “from now on, the only legitimate sovereign body is the ANP, through its Standing Committee.”

The two Coalitions reiterated their firm commitment to continue political dialogue with all forces in the Nation in the search for consensual solutions to the current political crisis, warning that they will not engage in any dialogue process promoted by the outgoing President, other than within the framework of ECOWAS/UNOWAS mediation.

At the heart of the country’s governance debate are competing perspectives of the role of the executive in the semi-presidential system. Under this arrangement, the president serves as the head of state and the prime minister, selected by parliament, is the head of government—choosing ministers and setting the day-to-day agenda.

The opposition coalitions strongly condemned the president’s “irresponsible and shameful attitude” towards the Mission, insisting that, “from now on, the only legitimate sovereign body is the ANP, through its Standing Committee”

Embaló, who emerged from the traditional, state-focused presidential framework with strong ties to the military, was instead hoping to secure a parliamentary majority to push through his vision for absolutist presidential power in a new constitution. The electoral victory of PAI-TR, with a 54-48 majority in Parliament, and the support of another 12 members of parliament (MP) from aligned parties, effectively limited Embaló’s expansive view of the presidential authority.

He has also attempted to side-line legislative authority by dissolving Parliament twice, including in December 2023, and alleging coup attempts, dismissing the parliamentary-selected prime minister, Geraldo Martins. The opposition has been blocked from organising rallies.

While Parliament officially resumed in September 2024, MPs have been prevented from entering the National Assembly, effectively keeping it shuttered an outcome Pereira has called a constitutional coup. ECOWAS’s role in the current debacle is reinforced by its commitment to democratic governance in the region, faced with the growing threat to constitutional governance.

The regional body revised its treaty in Cotonou in July 1993, recognising the need for broader integration and addressing political instability. This revised treaty expanded its mandate to include political, social, and security cooperation, shifting from a purely economic focus to a “ECOWAS of the People” vision. ECOWAS has been criticised for perceived inconsistencies in applying sanctions, slow responses to crises, and dominance by larger economies like Nigeria, leading to tensions with smaller or militarily ruled states.

The organisation has faced challenges enforcing its democratic governance protocols, with coups and electoral disputes in member states. Guinea-Bissau’s resilient civil society has also been a glue that has helped the country weather many political storms. They are expected to lead demands for areas the country confronts its latest challenge.