Development context 

Guinea-Bissau is endowed with a wealth of natural resources. Situated in West Africa, it ranks among the smaller nations in the region, with a population of roughly 2 million spanning an area just over 36,000 square kilometers. Approximately 80 percent of its residents live in coastal zones, which are rich in mangroves and valuable fisheries. Just off the mainland coast lie the dozens of islands that make up the Bijagós Archipelago, which has been declared a biosphere reserve because of its diverse and rich marine flora and fauna. In addition, the nation’s flat and low-lying plateaus boast fertile soils and extensive forests, while offshore territories harbor oil reserves.

Guinea-Bissau, despite its significant natural resources, remains underdeveloped with high poverty rates, lagging development indicators, and slow economic growth. The GDP per capita stands at US$775, and about one-fifth of the million population lives on less than US$2.15 daily. From 2010 to 2018, poverty increased in rural areas while declining in urban areas. The country’s literacy rates are lower than those of its peers, and the average real economic growth from 2000 to 2021 was only 3.1 percent annually, below the Sub-Saharan African average of 4 percent.

The underdevelopment of Guinea-Bissau can be attributed to political instability and weak institutions. Since gaining independence in 1973, the country has experienced 17 coups or attempted coups, contributing to its status as one of the most fragile states in the West Africa subregion and significantly hampering economic progress. For instance, the civil war in the late 1990s cut the GDP per capita by half compared to its potential value today. If political stability were at the global average, Guinea-Bissau’s economic output could have been 6.4 percent higher. The 2024 update of the World Bank Risk and Resilience Assessment highlights various drivers of fragility, such as inequitable administration of justice and social exclusion, which perpetuate a cycle of poverty and vulnerability.

Guinea-Bissau’s economy is insufficiently diversified and heavily dependent on the production of raw cashew nuts, which subjects it to vulnerability from external shocks. Largely characterized by subsistence farming and manual labor, the agricultural sector accounts for approximately 50 percent of GDP and employs around 80 percent of the workforce. Addressing poverty and food insecurity is crucial, particularly for the 120,000 smallholder farmers within the nation. The sector is predominantly focused on cashew nut production, which provides the primary source of cash income for about two-thirds of households and constitutes 90–98 percent of the country’s exports. Moreover, many service-related activities, representing nearly 40 percent of GDP, are indirectly associated with the cashew industry.

The underinvestment in education and health sectors in Guinea-Bissau has aggravated inequalities. About one-third of children ages 6 to 11 are not attending school, with girls facing more significant barriers to completing their education than boys. High incidences of child marriage and early parenthood in the country compel many girls to leave school early, further entrenching gender disparities in education. The overall quality of education is also below par. In the health sector, as per World Bank estimates, only 24 percent of the population had access to safely managed drinking water in 2020, 3 and a mere 18 percent had access to at least basic sanitation services.

The sector is predominantly focused on cashew nut production, which provides the primary source of cash income for about two-thirds of households and constitutes 90–98 percent of the country’s exports. Moreover, many service-related activities, representing nearly 40 percent of GDP, are indirectly associated with the cashew industry

Climate change and migration

Coupled with other non-climatic factors, climate change is already hastening human migration. Typically, people move for improved economic or educational opportunities or to flee conflicts. However, as climate change progresses, it is likely to exacerbate migration and mobility, leading to increased forced displacements and intensifying disputes over land and resources. For example, the entire village of Djobel is being forced to retreat from the coast due to rising sea levels, which is reigniting historical interethnic conflicts over land use and resources.

In the Northeast, exacerbated droughts and heatwaves — expected to be seven times more severe by 2100 — are driving livestock herders to seek new territories. Flash floods in both urban and rural settings frequently displace marginalized communities, leaving them with scant resources to rebuild or relocate. The state’s response to these challenges is often limited, and existing support measures to promote adaptive capacity are either insufficient or have minimal impact.

Guinea-Bissau’s climate commitments on mitigation and identified adaptation needs

The NDC highlights the importance of adaptation for Guinea-Bissau and a need to focus on measures aimed at strengthening adaptive capacity and resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Building on the National Programme of Action of Adaptation to Climate Changes, the First NDC, the Third National Communication, and other sectoral strategies, agriculture and livestock, energy, forestry, biodiversity, fisheries, and water resources are among the main priority sectors identified for adaptation.

While a list of specific adaptation measures and investment needs for adaptation is not presented in the updated NDC, references to some adaptation strategies in certain sectors is made. For example, on agriculture, the NDC mentions support for measures such as supplying seeds to compensate for food shortages in emergencies, building capacity for farmers and their organizations, improving water management, making agriculture more sustainable, developing new agricultural enterprises, preventing and managing food crises and other natural disasters (with strategies such as EWSs), and reinforcing institutions.

Promote climate-smart agriculture

The agricultural sector contributes 45 percent of Guinea-Bissau’s GDP (primarily through cashew nut exports), and is the main source of income for most of the population, with women making up most of the workforce. The major economic activities are cashew nut production and rice cropping, complemented by livestock farming. The government has historically promoted cashew production, which increased in area at a rate of 20 percent per year from 1986 to 1995. At present, cashews occupy 34.4 percent of usable agricultural land and represent 80 percent of farmers’ activities. Cashew is mainly sold as a raw product with limited processing. Other food crops include rice, maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, sweet potatoes, cassava, various vegetables and spices, and tropical fruits such as mangoes and bananas.

The country could regain self-sufficiency in rice production by expanding cultivation in suitable areas. Rice is the main stable crop and is cultivated on about 80,000 hectares, typically using traditional paddy or slash-and-burn techniques. About 45 percent of rice cultivation is on converted mangrove land, 18 percent is on small valley freshwater fields, and 37 percent is in rainfed forest and savanna ecosystems.

While a list of specific adaptation measures and investment needs for adaptation is not presented in the updated NDC, references to some adaptation strategies in certain sectors is made. For example, on agriculture, the NDC mentions support for measures such as supplying seeds to compensate for food shortages in emergencies, building capacity for farmers and their organizations, improving water management, making agriculture more sustainable, developing new agricultural enterprises, preventing and managing food crises and other natural disasters (with strategies such as EWSs), and reinforcing institutions

Improve urban development

Guinea-Bissau’s capital Bissau faces significant challenges with low-quality housing and public infrastructure, which heightens the vulnerability of its residents and critical facilities to flooding. This is exacerbated by heavy rainfall, high tides, and storm surges. Neighborhoods such as Cuntum Madina, Quelelé, Bolola, Bissak, and Empantchá are already severely affected by flooding, disrupting daily life and posing risks to administration buildings, educational institutions, health care centers, factories, energy installations, telecommunication networks, roads, and transportation hubs. During the rainy season, flooding renders many city arteries impassable, leading to community isolation. Projections indicate that by 2100, approximately 30 percent of Bissau’s population could face devastating impacts from flooding.

The increasing flood risks are attributed to several factors, including unchecked urbanization, the absence of effective urban planning, waste accumulation in drains and urban streams, and the mismanagement and poor operation of coastal infrastructure.

Gender and climate change dynamics 

Women in Guinea-Bissau are central to the workforce, playing a critical role in strengthening local food systems, upholding food sovereignty, and contributing to the socioeconomic well-being of their families and communities. They navigate the complexities of triple roles, engaging in market labor, household labor, and reproductive labor. Despite their contributions, women face limited access to essential resources such as land, livestock, financial capital, and mobility, with climate change threatening to deepen these gender disparities.

To enhance household resilience to climate shocks, gender inequalities must be addressed and women empowered by expanding their rights and control over assets. Facilitating women’s access to clean energy and water is essential for cooking, agro-processing, and food preservation, which can also alleviate their manual labor burden. Moreover, gathering gender-specific environmental and climate data is vital for crafting effective, gender-responsive measures that cater to women’s unique needs and priorities. Potential measures include allocating climate adaptation funds to support girls’ education and promote voluntary family planning.