The context and changing typology of migration in Chad 

Composed of adjacent but distinct climate regions, from the northern desert Saharan zone to the central semi-arid Sahel to the southern tropical woodlands and savannas, it borders Lake Chad in the southwest, important to the nation and the entire region for its supply of freshwater and fish. 

Within its borders, seasonal migration and return to place of origin has been a regular pattern. These long-enduring patterns are now, for a variety of socio-political and environmental reasons, poised to experience more considerable disruption than ever before; in the context of resource scarcity, political instability, and external pressures, all types of people on the move within and through Chad are at risk.  

Existing literature concerning recent migration in and through Chad has variously characterized this migration as a failure of governance, as forced displacement at the hands of non-state armed actor groups, and as a response to rescission of Lake Chad’s shoreline/shrinkage of basin water resources. The data from IOM surveys and focus groups reveals a far more nuanced reality. 

The national-level Flow monitoring survey findings (FMS) data yields a picture of recent human migration within Chad that is predominantly male (over 80%), mature (average age of around 30 years old), and driven by economic circumstances. Ninety-two per cent conveyed that they were not forcibly displaced, but rather that they moved for other reasons. By far the most frequent response in the April 2018 – June 2020 FMS was economic reasons.

Migration is an adaptation strategy, but is not a guaranteed escape from climate change nor food insecurity. It is not certain that migrants find new economic opportunities or the chance to re-engage with the livelihoods they once knew.  

The Climate Change Pilot Study sheds light on conflict, food insecurity and climate change as root causes that are inseparable from conflict and economic scarcity, in this case in the Lake Chad Basin region, an area with significant population concentration. The effects of climate change decrease availability and access to water resources, arable farmland, crop yields, and, subsequently, livelihoods.

Climate-induced events stress an already food-insecure region by affecting agriculture – Chad’s main source of food and livelihoods. This exacerbated food insecurity necessitates the need for migration and exposes vulnerabilities to conflict; the conflict drives further migration, the instances of which are intensified by climate variability; the increased temperatures, variable rainfall, and decimated landscapes often prevent a return home; and the feedback loop continues. 

Migration in the context of food security and climate change 

Food security, climate change, and migration are linked in complex and multifaceted ways.11 Their linkages increasingly are being analysed by both international agencies and through academic research. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has recently highlighted that agriculture and rural development are important considerations for migration. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report states that climate change is affecting food security through increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and an increase in extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. 

With a majority of the Sahelian population directly dependent on natural resources for its livelihood, the impacts of climate change driven food insecurity in the region will continue to grow. Persistent food insecurity continues to perpetuate the disruption of livelihoods, exacerbate grievances, and often leaves people with few options for adaptation in the African Sahel. 

A closer look at climate change 

Of 186 countries assessed in the 2016 Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), Chad was rated the nation most at risk of effects of climate change. 

FAO works toward an environment in which vulnerable livelihoods and food and agricultural systems can withstand the impacts of climate change through behavior or systems modifications and actions to limit global warming and its related effects. The World Food Programme (WFP) also works to combat the effects of climate change. These organizations and IOM Chad can jointly help achieve the goals and aspirations of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to end hunger, reduce rural poverty and manage natural resources in a sustainable manner, particularly in Chad and the Sahel Region. 

Temperatures in the Sahel rise 1.5 times faster than the global average, with near surface temperatures increasing over the last 50 years. The Sahel is expected to warm by 3°C to 5°C by 2050. In Chad, mean annual temperatures have risen by 0.7°C since 1960. Increased levels of heat lead to extreme events, such as droughts, wildfires, and heat waves. One of the primary causes of droughts in the Sahel is temperature rise, in addition to land degradation and dust feedbacks. Tree mortality has been linked to Sahelian droughts, which can further exacerbate climate change impacts by diminishing the ability of plants to uptake carbon dioxide.

Chad is among the Sahelian nations most likely to have fatal extreme heat on its warmest days, limiting the region’s habitability and survivability. 

Climate Change : Variable Precipitation and Climate Events 

The largest difficulty in adapting to precipitation changes in Chad is that they remain difficult to predict. The World Bank Group has found no trend in mean annual rainfall since 1960. Other studies have concluded that rainfall is decreasing or increasing annually, with no clear consensus between studies. 

With nearly 90 per cent of the country depending on agriculture for subsistence and employment, Chad is especially sensitive to variability in precipitation, making changes in precipitation and unexpected climate events all the more disruptive to the Chadians. For example, in 2020 alone, heavy rainfall affected almost 400,000 people, with government statistics and humanitarian partners estimating that 20 out of 23 of Chad’s provinces were impacted by the subsequent flooding. 

The historic recession of Lake Chad and the depletion of freshwater resources within the Lake Chad Basin are a direct result of desertification induced by variable precipitation and ever-increasing temperatures. Though variable rainfall can result in extreme wet seasons and flooding, which in turn can result in a temporary expansion of Lake Chad, the lake and the basin’s water resources have seen a continuous long-term downward trend. As these challenges converge, we continue to witness a growing population in Chad fighting for diminishing water resources. 

As it concerns disease, climate change exacerbates disease, its vectors, and the impact it has on human beings. Erratic storms from variable precipitation bring heavy rains which sweep up and mix human waste from waste infrastructure such as pit latrines into drinking water and other water resources. Additionally, as freshwater resources become scarce because of desertification, unpredictable precipitation, and increased temperatures, wildlife will come in more frequent contact with humans. This risks further human exposure to zoonotic diseases.

Food Insecurity and Migration in the Lac province 

The Lake Chad Basin is crucial for the livelihoods of approximately 30 million people from Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad that share this transboundary water resource. Its shrinkage over the decades has left many of those in Chad who depend on it for livelihood facing food insecurity, loss of income, and lack of alternative livelihood sources.A 2020 report from OCHA featuring the latest available figures found that more than 2.3 million people were facing food insecurity, including 450,000 in severe food insecurity in Chad.

The tactic of diversifying livelihoods is increasing and is also becoming more and more challenging for Chadians. For example, people will shift from flood recession-based agriculture to livestock herding or fishing if the risks for early flooding are high.

Women also face increased levels of risk and vulnerability to sexual and gender-based violence when going about daily tasks to gather or access essential resources. Widespread deforestation, especially around internally displaced or refugee settlements and camps, is driving the need for people to travel further to collect essential firewood.  This is one example of how people, especially women, can be at a higher risk of sexual and or gender-based violence. 

This erosion in social cohesion and trust is exacerbated by conflict and climate change and can in turn exacerbate conflict. It is important to note that conflicts over natural resources can vary in severity, ranging from increased tension and the breakdown of community trust to violent conflict.  

While climate change is a root cause of food insecurity in Chad, conflict has also had an impact on food security, particularly in agricultural communities in the Lake Chad Basin. According to the FAO, vulnerable communities are often targeted by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) to acquire resources and force community members from their homes.  Arable land has been used to shelter displaced populations, further fragmenting farmlands, while the production of important staple cereal crops such as maize and sorghum have been restricted to avoid creating hideouts for the NSAGs. Overall, finding farmland that is fertile and safe from insecurity threats has proved difficult, especially since host communities tend to have prior claims on such land.

Fishing is a livelihood with deep roots in food security for the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) communities. Fish remains one of the most vital sources of protein, particularly for those living along the shores in these countries. Environmental changes have resulted in spatio-temporal variations, and population pressure and unplanned irrigation have all impacted the lake levels, affecting fishing as a livelihood and threatening food security. 

In conclusion, climate change, conflict, and food insecurity create linkages that destroy livelihoods, drive displacement, widen inequalities (including gender) and weaken sustainable development particularly in developing countries. The impact of this complex nexus calls for cooperation, collaboration, and shared resources and knowledge on the local, regional, and international levels at an unprecedented pace. 

Recommendations 

• Increase the role of women in leadership, as women are recognized as key agents of change. 

• Establish timely and better integration policies for displaced populations. Governments in Chad and throughout the Sahel region need to plan for better integration of their displaced populations by empowering them to start businesses or pursue collaborative farming, so that they can take care of their families.  

• Increase bottom-up climate resilience efforts. 

Resilience-building assistance over security assistance : Security assistance in the form of weapons, money, or training to deal with the widespread conflict in the region only exacerbates said conflict as security forces can often become emboldened by the assistance or said assistance can get in the wrong hands.