La situation économique au Ghana
WATHI propose une sélection de documents sur le contexte économique, social et politique au Ghana. Chaque document est présenté sous forme d’extraits qui peuvent faire l’objet de légères modifications. Les notes de bas ou de fin de page ne sont pas reprises dans les versions de WATHI. Nous vous invitons à consulter les documents originaux pour toute citation et tout travail de recherche.
Ghanaians head to the polls in December; future government expected to follow IMF-backed policy, 2016
Andrea Vetrugno, Focus Economics
Excerpts
Ghana will head to the polls on 7 December to elect a President and members of parliament in the context of a struggling labor market and widespread social discontent. After winning by a small margin in 2012, President John Mahama of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) faces another tight race against the main opposition leader, Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), who blames the country’s economic deceleration on the current executive’s mismanagement and corruption. Analysts expect the NPP to take over from the ruling NDC, though a second ballot could be required since the polls see the two political forces running almost neck and neck. The two parties’ programs are broadly similar and analysts are confident that either party will uphold the IMF’s policy prescriptions. Any change in government is not expected to imply a significant change in economic agenda.
The NDC, which in April 2015 signed an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) with the IMF totaling almost USD 1.0 billion, is seeking a third consecutive mandate. It has focused its campaign on the successful implementation of the economic reform package it adopted in 2014 and promised it will continue to pursue the country’s wellbeing through a comprehensive education plan and stronger infrastructure investment, while controlling public expenditure. However, the unpopular austerity measures implemented by the current government in the aftermath of country’s bailout have made it very unpopular with the electorate.
The deteriorating economic conditions under Mahama’s presidency are expected to work in NPP’s favor. According to the official party manifesto, an Akufo-Addo-led administration would undo four years of economic deceleration by enhancing fiscal responsibility and financial stability through the introduction of a fiscal responsibility law and a Fiscal and Financial Stability Council. Moreover, it would shift the focus of economic policy away from taxation on production by abolishing a number of taxes that weigh on firms, though this looks to be unlikely, at least in the short term, given the country’s weak fiscal position.
The country’s electoral spectrum is divided in two. President Mahama’s candidature will continue to be supported in the Eastern and Northern regions of the country, due to his historical and tribal legacy; while the opposition will enjoy a stronger position in the central regions. Securing Greater Accra, the second most-inhabited and usually a swing region, will be key for the winning party.
Perspectives économiques au Ghana, 2016
Groupe de la Banque africaine de Développement
http://www.afdb.org/fr/countries/west-africa/ghana/ghana-economic-outlook/
Extraits
En 2015, la croissance de l’économie ghanéenne est ressortie à 3,7 %(estimation), en recul par rapport aux 4 % de 2014. Ce ralentissement est imputable à divers problèmes économiques, pour l’essentiel déjà présents en 2014 : trois ans de crise énergétique, accroissement du déficit budgétaire et de la dette publique, important déficit du secteur extérieur et baisse imprévisible des cours mondiaux pour les exportations de pétrole et d’or du pays. Le secteur des services a été le principal moteur de la croissance. Le secteur industriel a, lui aussi, affiché un taux de croissance positif, à 9,1 %.
À moyen terme, on prévoit une reprise de l’activité, avec un taux de croissance de 5,8 % en 2016 et de 8,7 % en 2017. La reprise de la croissance économique prévue pour 2016/17 dépend de la poursuite des mesures d’assainissement budgétaire, de la résolution rapide de la crise énergétique, de l’entrée en production de deux nouveaux puits de pétrole et de l’amélioration des productions de cacao et d’or.
En 2015, le Ghana a maintenu sa politique de rigueur monétaire et budgétaire. Le programme d’assainissement des finances publiques avait pour objectif de faire face aux pressions de la demande principalement exacerbées par la masse salariale et le service de la dette publique, qui absorbent l’essentiel des recettes non affectées. La politique monétaire de 2015 a été encore durcie par des mesures visant à contenir la hausse de l’inflation et la dépréciation de la monnaie nationale.Pour remédier à ces problèmes, le Ghana a conclu en avril 2015 un accord triennal avec le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) reposant sur une Facilité élargie de crédit (FEC), passant avec succès deux revues conduites au titre du programme.
Grâce à l’assainissement des finances publiques, les conclusions des revues devraient également être satisfaisantes en 2016. Les élections nationales auront lieu fin 2016. Il est essentiel que le scrutin se déroule de façon paisible et transparente pour garantir la continuité de l’action publique et conforter la réputation de modèle démocratique du pays, en particulier après les élections présidentielles de 2012, dont le résultat avait été vivement contesté par l’opposition qui avait déposé un recours devant la justice.
Ghana: Economic Policy & 2015 Outlook Report
Africa Economics LLC
http://www.africa-economics.com/file/2013/10/Ghana-and-the-IMF_Africa-Economics-Report_Final.pdf
Excerpts
Ghana faces stark choices with this new International Monetary Fund programme juxtaposed against its high stakes political environment and impending elections in December 2016. Previous elections have been closely fought between the NPP and NDC, with the winner often being declared with a victory margin of less than 1%. Ultimately, the broad short-tomedium term options available to the government will come with political consequences.
For example, making drastic cut backs in public sector expenditure especially public sector wages will difficult for the government as the 2016 elections draw near, making it more than likely that these cuts will delayed until after the elections. Furthermore, it is more likely that the government, will at best, maintain current spending levels envisaged within the 2015 budget. Moves to increase revenues by widening the tax base and improving on efficiencies in collection are unlikely to yield any significant short term impacts due to weak structures such as inefficient public and business address systems.
However, the government could bolster its finances through prudent fiscal housekeeping and accountability in public expenditure. Fiscal consolidation will drastically dampen non-oil economic growth initially from 2015-16 but this is forecast to rebound in subsequent years. The IMF estimates non-oil GDP growth to decelerate further to 2.3% of GDP in 2015 before picking up in the following years, reaching 5.5% of GDP by 2017. Commodity price volatility will continue to play a major role in the outlook for Ghana’s weak macroeconomic conditions.
The government recently revised its revenue projections for 2015 and amended its budget forecast to capture the volatility in the oil markets. Total petroleum receipts for 2015 have been revised downwards by about 65% on account of lower crude oil prices at an estimated GH¢1.5 billion (1.1 percent of GDP), compared with the 2015 Budget estimate of GH¢4.2 billion (3.1 percent of GDP). The Ghanaian economy is heavily dependent on cocoa, gold and oil, accounting for 75% of its exports. The prices of all three key exports have recently declined on the world market compared to 2013 price levels.
This state of affairs could easily worsen “it is becoming increasing unlikely that the government will have the requisite political will and fiscal discipline to meet the conditions of the IMF loan facility with an election year just around the corner in 2016” the country’s trade balance for 2015. Consequentially, Government is very likely to struggle with persistent current account deficits and balance of payment challenges for the remainder of 2015. Ghana’s forex reserves have also been heavily depleted due to a fall in commodity exports, falling from US$5.89bn in November 2014 to US$5.46bn in December 2014, representing a 7.9% decline.
The government is hoping that this new credit facility from the IMF will sanitize its fiscal policy consolidation by creating global credibility and confidence in its economic policies. The first tranche of the long awaited credit facility of $114m aimed at shoring up the BOG forex reserves is unlikely to do much to stabilize the cedi. The Mahama Administration is hoping that the new IMF loan and three-year debt sustainability programme will trigger a ripple effect that will cause other development partners to release donor funds to the tune of $500m for budgetary support.
These donor funds were frozen as the perception that payroll fraud, corruption and excessive government spending had led to the evident mismanagement of the public sector purse. Whether these donor funds will actually be released or disbursed remains to be seen during the course of 2015.
Credits Photo: Ghana News